FanEx Analysis Draft
Round 1

Rules | Transactions

Draft Rounds - See below for analysis
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20  

Final Analysis

 1.01
 Chris Dolfi | Tom Walls
RB Adrian Peterson
 QB: RB: Peterson  WR: TE: PK:

We were willing to trade the #1 pick in this year's draft feeling it wasn't *quite* as valuable as in some previous years, but we just couldn't work out the details.  So we happily selected Adrian Peterson for several reasons: 1760 yards rushing in 2008 (#1 in NFL), double digit TDs, and he's only entering his 3rd punishing NFL season.  We hope he improves on his 9 fumbles last year, but honestly - with this guy as the cornerstone of 
our backfield, we won't sweat the little things and we'll just sit back and reap the rewards of the 1.01 pick.
===================================================================================
1.02
 		TC Cannon
RB Michael Turner
 QB: RB: Turner WR: TE: PK:

My-oh-My.... What have we here? Tomlinson's long-time backup jumps to Atlanta with a meaty contract and pleases the Falcon community with an entertaining and super productive 2008 season. He becomes a top-5 rusher and elite scorer, with long term promise. Others were slightly considered here, but Turner seems the ideal feature back to be claimed this early. While 1700/17 numbers will be *very* difficult to match, he is my 1.02 non-gamble to lead this team to the FanEx Winner's Circle.
===================================================================================

1.03

Matt Pitzer
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
 QB: RB: Jones-Drew   WR: TE: PK:

I don't think there is an obvious third overall pick this year. Jones-Drew is one who certainly could qualify as he should see a boost in playing time following the departure of veteran Fred Taylor. I expect Jones-Drew to surpass his previous career-best of 941 rushing yards, and his TD and reception totals from his three 
seasons have been hard to beat. He definitely has a shot at being one of this year's fantasy stars.
===================================================================================

1.04

Greg Kellogg 
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
 QB: RB: Tomlinson  WR: TE: PK:
Last year LaDainian Tomlinson finished 0.30 points out of the top 5 RBs in FanEx scoring.  Many think this signaled the approach of the end of a stellar career.  I do not.  I attribute his decline to the injuries he played through.  Despite a severe case of turf toe and a groin injury that cost him a playoff appearance, Tomlinson finished with 12 TDs, 52 receptions and over 1500 total yards. This might not be the vogue pick this year but with Tomlinson's track record, it is likely to be the safest one taken in the first round.
===================================================================================
1.05
 		Craig Davis
RB Matt Forte
 QB: RB: Forte  WR: TE: PK:

Regardless of format, Matt Forte was an easy selection for me here. Though he's still very young and 
unproven, I was convinced at the halfway point last season and with Jay Cutler, instead of Kyle Orton, slinging the rock, this only opens up the running game even more. Forte is a great pass-catcher, hits holes very hard, and should be finding himself with more red zone opps this year than he had last year.
===================================================================================

1.06

Duane Cahill 
RB Steven Jackson
 QB: RB: Jackson  WR: TE: PK:
Steven Jackson is far from a safe first round pick.  He's played in all 16 games only once in his previous five years, as he's missed time almost annually with quad, rib and knee injuries.
 
But I can't ignore the potential.  Despite his injury history, Jackson has rushed for over 1000 yards in each of 
the past four seasons.  Steve Spagnuolo will be transitioning the Rams offense to a power running game, and there's not another running back on the roster that will siphon significant carries.  Jackson will be the Ram's workhorse.  That was the reason that I selected Jackson ahead of my other considerations, Chris Johnson 
and Deangelo Williams. 
 
I'll project 1750 total yards, 12 TDs and 45-50 receptions.   

===================================================================================

1.07

Tony Holm
RB Chris Johnson
 QB: RB: CJohnson  WR: TE: PK:
I was excited to get Chris Johnson here as he's my #4 RB on my board as he's a #4 with upside.  The Titans have stated they plan to mold their offense around him and have dedicated themselves to finding ways to get the ball to Chris Johnson in open space this year, which means a lot more looks in the receiving game for him.  The knock on Johnson will be his ability to score, I expect him to chew up yards, rushing for at least 1,200 yards and receiving for at least another 500 yards though that could easily be 600 or 700 yards.  Will there be 
enough break away TDs to rack up double digits?  I'm a big fan of drafting opportunity and upside in the FAD and I've opened with exactly that.
===================================================================================

1.08

Brian Hulett
RB Frank Gore
 QB: RB: Gore  WR: TE: PK:
Drat. Last year prior to the Titans drafting Chris Johnson I was excited by his amazing speed and escapability, but was scared away by all the talk about how his role would be limited to a few flare passes or the like.  And now these guys tease me by letting the kid ALMOST fall to me at 1.08. Drat. 

Oh well, I guess I'll just have to settle for the every-down back on a team that seems likely to pound, pound, pound the ball all day with throwback coach Mike Singletary while rookie speedster Michael Crabtree draws enough attention to give him room to run.  Gee, life is rough sometimes. Gore's totals may have been down some each of the past two years, but look for that to turn around solidly this season, although he likely won't catch as many passes as Johnson. Drat.
===================================================================================

1.09

Shannon O'Leary | John Georgopoulos
RB DeAngelo Williams
 QB: RB: Williams  WR: TE: PK:
DeAngelo was a top running back scorer in the FanEx last year. Stewart was supposed to take carries away from him, but Williams still had 274 carries and over 1500 yards. His quickness will keep him on the field enough to top 1000 yards easy, barring injury. Another factor in taking Williams was his age. We have vowed to stay away from the ageing running backs and receivers this year. Stewart could cut into Williams carries, but we don’t see Williams slowing down much.
===================================================================================

1.10

Chris Rito | Mike Nazarek
RB Brian Westbrook
 QB: RB: Westbrook  WR: TE: PK:
This was a tough choice for us; we debated WR Larry Fitzgerald seriously, correctly guessing he would not 
get past TC at 1.11 (Why else would he trade up as he did, unless to get the top scorer at a position?). The basic decision came down our belief that "Westbrook plus the RB or WR we get in round 2" would likely outscore "Fitzgerald plus the RB we get in round 2" as our most likely options. There are always the concerns of Westbrook's balky knee and the specter of rookie LeSean McCoy lurking, but we felt the risk was worth it 
to get a RB capable of 1000+ rushing yards and 70+ catches with his double-digit combined TDs at the 1.10 slot. Westbrook also is capable of carrying a week for your fantasy team all by himself, as we have seen. In 
just a few picks, we will get to see if our calculated gamble pays off.
===================================================================================

1.11

TC Cannon (via Allan trade)
WR Larry Fitzgerald
 QB: RB: Turner  WR: Fitzgerald TE: PK::
Like many drafters, I like rushers to be my strongest, most dependable position. It is common to quickly draft positive RBs and QBs, while using several fill-in-the-blank quality receiver as rotating starters. However , Fitzgerald is very special and worth the cost. After three 100-1400-10 type seasons, it is confirmed that Fitz is a true NFL star. He alone can win two or more fantasy games for FF owners each season. The opportunity to claim him resulted in a  first round trade  -- My 2.02 + 5.02 + 9.02  for Ian's 1.11 + 10.02 + 20.02. 

The goal now is to find quality QB and RB options with the next few picks. Who'll be there 35 players deep? 
Be assured that it would take Randy Moss to get me to double up on early WRs. 
===================================================================================

1.12

Mike Harmon
RB Steve Slaton
 QB: RB: Slaton  WR: TE: PK:
Slaton was one of the stars of draft-day 2008, breaking through a crowded Houston backfield to turn in a fabulous rookie year. He’s got breakaway speed, shows good presence inside the tackles and catches the 
ball well out of the backfield. I’m banking on Matt Schaub to elevate his game in 2009. He has three tremendous receiving options (along with Slaton), so the second-year back from West Virginia should find some big running lanes.
===================================================================================